Still Have Your Chain Link Armored Underwear?

I wish I was kidding about the title. I think we are going to need them. By August or September at the latest, the rest of the country is going to realize, we are in a very softening position in the economy again. Today is not a good day in the markets, mostly brought about by some really bad news in the economic index releases today. Obamao, if you were an employee, you would have received your walking papers today. If you were a student, you would have flunked with a BOLD CAPITAL "F"! The lies and fluffing of numbers must end and the truth must be known. Your programs have not worked and the solid proof was in the reports this morning. Here is what we saw this morning: Non-Farm Employment Change Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry; May Actual +69,000 - May Forecast +151,000 - April Revised down to +77,000 from +115,000 So they actually missed their forecast by 82,000 jobs, had the unemployment rate jump up to 8.2% and then revised their jobs number from April down 38,000 jobs. In case you didn't know, the "previous month" numbers have been revised down almost every month since 2009. The government is pushing out higher numbers every month than the actual and then revise them backwards the following month on a Friday after the markets have closed so that they get lost in the weekend. Thank you Labor Department, we are so glad you tell us the truth every month or should I say the month after the false reports are released. It kind of infuriates me to think that our government lies to us so much, but then what do we know? We are just peons that don't know what is good for us. Put that 16+ ounce cup back on the rack, you don't need to drink that much. Average Hourly Earnings Month to Month Change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry; May Actual +0.1% - May Forecast +0.2% - April Revised +0.1% Remember the old supply and demand rule? There was not a tightening in the available labor pool, so the cost of the labor does not go up like expected. Core PCE Price Index Month to Month Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy; May Actual +0.1% - May Forecast +0.2% - April +0.2% This is good in the sense that the cost of items will not go up as much as expected, however, it also means that the demand on those same goods is down which means our economy is cooling off even more! Personal Spending Month to Month Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all expenditures by consumers; May Actual +0.3% - May Forecast +0.3% - April Revised Down to +0.2% from +0.3% Not a big change by any means. Especially not enough to drive an economic recovery! Personal Income Month to Month Change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers; May Actual +0.2% - May Forecast +0.4% - April +0.4% Unfortunately there was a lesser increase in income this month than from the previous month's increase. This will not be helpful in pushing an economic recovery either. Final Manufacturing PMI Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry; May 54.0 - April 53.9 Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. 54.0 is by no means an expansion number. It is barely above stagnant. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry; May Actual 53.5 - May Forecast 54.0 - April 54.8 This is a drop of 1.3 from April and .5 below the expected index. Does this match up to the word on the street of softening freight volumes? Construction Spending Month to Month Change in the total amount builders spent on construction projects; May Actual +0.3% - May Forecast +0.4% - April +0.3% May should be a larger increase because of the seasonal increase due to weather. It landed below the forecast and far below the number needed to show a recovery. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Prices Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry; May Actual 47.5 - May Forecast 57.1 - April 61.0 This is a component of PMI but reported separately as an inflation gauge. Above 50.0 indicates rising prices, below indicates falling prices. A drop in prices means low demand! The numbers above are reported from Forex Factory. They are a great source for investors on key index and government reports on the economy. In April, the Cass Freight Index Report showed a freight volume increase of +0.2% from April 2011. Anyone remember their feelings about the economy in 2011? Let me help you, we were all still very concerned about where we were heading and when things would pick up. However the cost of freight expenditures was up +5.1%! Higher costs at the same freight levels are not good. That means you are seeing a real inflation factor without the pressure of volume pushing it! For those that don't remember or never learned some of those simple economic rules, you get worried when you see this. The word on the street, sometimes the best index; I am hearing that freight is down. Costs are up even though we are seeing a very recent relaxing in the price of diesel fuel. Parts, tires and driver costs are still climbing. We have Diesel fuel price reductions. What would cause that? A simple drop in demand, an increase in inventories, an increase in production... Production in the U.S. refineries is at an all time high. Export of gasoline and diesel are at an all time high. Diesel exports are up 107% since August 2007. So it looks like our diesel cost reduction is being caused by lighter demand in the U.S. and increasing inventory levels. If the cost continues to go down, it is definitely a usage issue driving the reduction. When freight volumes begin to soften, there is a 90 day delay before the softening makes it to the retail and consumer level. In other words as the latest dates we will see it, August or September are going to have some soft economic numbers surface in the indexes. SUMMARY: Get out your chain link underwear. We may be on the edge of another slip in our economy. Imagine that. Europe is in a desperate situation trying to hold up the members of the Union that are not serious about making changes to improve their own economies. The Fed is printing money faster than we can even relate to. Think about it, well over THREE TRILLION DOLLARS in the last three years! We still have not seen the ugly side of inflation from that yet. The only thing saving us from hyper inflation is the recession we have not climbed clear of yet! We have president still demanding more stimulus spending and is pumping out executive orders like there is no tomorrow. I heard it best the other night on a late night radio show from an economist that was being interviewed. He basically stated that Romney is our only hope this year. He said we are getting ready to slip backwards again. If Romney is elected, it will be two to three years before the results of his suggested courses of action will generate positive results in the economy. In fact the first year of change will create some pain, and the second year of change will begin to see growth. The third year should begin to see the rewards of the change. The fourth year of change will be a year of relief, growth, and prosperity coming back to the middle class. I wish I was wrong, but I think we are in for more trouble. Good luck everyone! May God Bless America and all of us, we need it.